A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
